France could lose its capacity to export wheat to the global market within 10 years if ongoing harvest declines driven by economic and climate pressures persist, producers group AGPB warned on Tuesday in Paris.
Falling harvests and export risks
France is the largest wheat producer in the European Union, but domestic output of soft wheat dropped 4 percent compared to 2025 to reach 31.9 million metric tons in the current year. That volume sits far below the record French wheat harvest of 41 million tons achieved in 2015.
Output dropped 4 percent this year. If those trends continue, France could lose an additional 6 million tons of soft wheat production by 2036. That potential loss equals the projected export surplus destined for non-EU destinations from the current harvest, threatening to erase the country’s presence on global export markets entirely.
Income losses and import disputes
Higher fertilizer costs continue to offset the recovery in agricultural prices, leaving grain producers facing negative income across four consecutive years through 2026. The French government introduced an aid package of 1 billion euros, or $1.16 billion, to cover climate-related losses across the farming sector.
Farmers face four loss-making years. Eric Thirouin, president of the AGPB, said the group opposes expanding the European Union’s import quota for Ukrainian wheat because incoming grain could depress prices, as occurred previously during Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Source: AGPB
