China is expected to cut its imports of RBD palm olein by about 40.7 percent to 1.6 million tonnes in 2027, Ryan Chen, director of China import and export business at Cargill Investments Ltd., said on Friday at the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) 2026 in Bali. The projection compares with a 2026 import target of 2.7 million tonnes.
Chen said China needs to absorb existing inventory before adding stock again. Palm oil stocks in China are high, and stocks at the end of 2026 are projected at 1.2 million tonnes, almost half a year of consumption and the highest supply in six years.
Demand outlook
Palm oil’s price competitiveness against soybean oil is expected to support imports in November and December 2026. Chen said 2027 prices are expected to be less attractive, with demand limited to basic food-industry needs.
Projected China food-use demand for RBD palm olein is 2.2 million tonnes in 2026, down from 2.4 million tonnes a year earlier. Chen said that, considering current inventory and demand prospects, China is not rushing to make additional purchases.
Weather risk to supply
Chen said that if the palm-soy price spread becomes competitive again, China could add about 400 thousand tonnes of demand. He also said a significant annual output decline in Indonesia and Malaysia due to El Nino in 2027 could cut China’s additional purchases by 300 to 400 thousand tonnes.
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Chen said China could again reduce imports if Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production experiences a significant annual decline due to El Nino impacts in 2027.
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Source: Cargill Investments Ltd
