S&P Global Ratings affirmed Poland’s long-term foreign-currency rating at A- on Friday evening, while its long-term local-currency rating was lowered to A- from A. The outlook on both ratings was revised to negative from stable.
Fiscal warnings
In a report accompanying the move, S&P said it expects Poland’s economy to keep growing at around 3 percent over the next two to three years, supported by strong domestic demand and exports. The agency forecast that the average general government deficit will exceed 6 percent of GDP and that net general government debt will reach 70 percent of GDP by the end of the decade, a trend it linked to political polarisation that hinders fiscal consolidation.
S&P said the negative outlook reflects the risk that elevated budget deficits and rising public debt could limit Poland’s policy flexibility in the face of future shocks. That could expose the country to shifts in investor sentiment, the agency said, or force a sharp fiscal adjustment that would weigh on economic growth.
Conditions for a downgrade
A further downgrade could follow if persistent fiscal imbalances and debt growth, complicated by political polarisation, raise risks to growth, S&P said. A lower rating could also result from an escalation of Russia’s war with Ukraine. A return to a stable outlook would be possible if the Polish government takes steps to durably and substantially reduce its large fiscal deficits.
Moody’s had separately downgraded Poland to A3. Elsewhere in markets, the S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86 points on 6 November 2026, up 0.31 percent from the previous session.
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Source: S&P Global | Data: S&P Dow Jones Indices
