Colombia’s Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee stated that returning to the country’s fiscal rule in 2028 is doubtful and called for a fiscal adjustment of six percentage points of GDP. The warning comes as the Economic Commissions prepare to vote on a 634.9 trillion COP budget that the Ministry of Finance submitted for 2027.
Fiscal targets and adjustment scale
Reaching compliance in 2028 requires a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP, according to the committee. The government must collect 40 trillion COP above its non-interest spending in 2028 to hit that objective. That target demands an adjustment of six percentage points of GDP. Director of Carf Juan Carlos Ramírez said that path looks very difficult to achieve because mandatory budget items limit flexibility while economic growth dynamics remain weak.
Ramírez suggested a transitional path setting precise points each year rather than an abrupt shift back to existing limits. Higher tax rates, improved tax administration at DIAN, and curbs on deduction abuses could generate revenue, he said. Broad modifications must combine revenue, expenditure, debt, and growth.
Debt limits and spending pressures
The Ministry of Finance previously announced a spending reduction of 2 percent of GDP under a Fiscal Law. However, Minister of Finance Miguel Gómez warned that the debt service burden continues to increase, creating critical short-term pressure. The projected fiscal deficit for 2027 stands at 9.4 percent of GDP.
Net debt will reach 67.3 percent of GDP in 2027. That projection sits 3.7 percent of GDP below the statutory limit of 71 percent set by the Fiscal Rule Law. Programmed healthcare resources face an 8.2 trillion COP shortfall in the 2027 budget, while disaster relief expenses following an earthquake add further fiscal pressure.
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Source: Colombia's Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee
