Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy has cut its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast to 0.1 percent, from 1.3 percent projected in June. Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko announced the revision on Monday. The ministry’s earlier forecast had been 2.4 percent at the start of the year.
Causes cited for the downgrade
Kravchenko attributed the revision to the blocking of Ukrainian ports. He also pointed to the postponement of budget investment until year-end.
The growth figure for 2025 was 1.8 percent, so the new forecast implies a sharp slowdown.
Other forecasts diverge
The Kyiv School of Economics, or KSE, revised its own 2026 forecast on Saturday. It now expects a contraction of 0.3 percent, down from its earlier estimate of 1.9 percent growth. Two days separate the two revisions.
The International Monetary Fund projects 1 percent growth for Ukraine in 2026.
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Source: Ukraine's Ministry of Economy
