Inflation outlook steady
Participants now expect October’s monthly consumer price increase at 2.11 percent, up from 1.97 percent in the previous survey. The year-end CPI expectation edged up only slightly, to 29.63 percent from 29.61 percent. Looking further out, the 12-months-ahead inflation expectation rose to 23.89 percent from 23.70 percent, while the 24-months-ahead figure eased to 17.94 percent from 18.32 percent.
Expectations for the lira moved only fractionally. The year-end USD/TRY forecast stands at 51.5471, little changed from 51.5716 previously.
Growth and external balance
Growth expectations were trimmed for this year. Participants now see GDP growth of 2.9 percent for the current year, down from 3 percent in the prior survey, while next year’s growth is put at 3.9 percent. The current account deficit forecast for year-end was lowered to $48.5 billion from $50.1 billion, and the next-year deficit projection slipped to $43.8 billion from $44.4 billion.
On monetary policy, participants expect the policy rate at 36 percent at the first upcoming CBRT meeting, falling to 35 percent at the second and 34.35 percent at the third. Twelve months ahead, the policy rate is expected to stand at 29.01 percent.
Separately, US annual inflation stood at 3.7 percent in September, near its 31-day high.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
