Wheat prices fell 12.7 percent in September, ending the month at $6.75 per bushel after touching $7.95 a bushel earlier in the period. It was the fastest monthly decline since June 2024, when prices fell 15.5 percent.
A sharp reversal
The September slide follows a year in which wheat had mostly climbed. Prices started the year near $5 a bushel and are still up 35 percent year-to-date, despite a 5.85 percent dip in January. September’s drop stands out against that broader gain.
Futures and commodities market expert Zafer Ergezen said wheat prices move on geopolitical developments, climate conditions, and supply and demand. He pointed to expectations of possible peace between Russia and Ukraine, favourable climate conditions and declining demand as the main drivers of the September fall.
Dollar and Black Sea supply
Ergezen said the strengthening of the US dollar index made US wheat expensive, raising its dollar-denominated cost and making European wheat more attractive by comparison. He said costs for wheat produced by Russia and Ukraine had declined, which kept US wheat prices high by comparison.
He also cited improving US-Russia relations, rising supply expectations in the Black Sea, a lower-than-expected El Nino effect, weaker short-term US wheat exports and concerns over a global growth slowdown as factors pulling prices back.
