The UK Parliament Treasury Committee published a review defending the Office for Budget Responsibility from political criticism while recommending that ministers consider introducing a 10-year economic forecast. George Osborne established the fiscal watchdog in 2010 to provide independent economic forecasts and scrutinise government tax and spending decisions.
Expanding horizons
Lawmakers proposed adding a 10-year projection horizon to bridge the gap between the agency’s current five-year economic forecast and its 50-year long-term projections. The watchdog also uses a 50-year timeframe to assess threats to public finances in its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report. Meg Hillier, Chair of the Treasury Committee, noted that evaluating policies further out could help break the cycle of short-term thinking holding the country back.
The agency operates under fresh leadership after former chair Richard Hughes resigned in December 2025 following a leak of a budget assessment. Despite recent turnover, committee members urged ministers to publicly back the fiscal body.
Fiscal rule debate
Academic researchers Jo Michell from the University of the West of England and Robert Calvert Jump from the University of Greenwich argued that the watchdog has evolved to determine permissible policy without a democratic mandate. They noted that headroom figures calculated by the fiscal arbiter now serve as the binding constraint on government action.
Hillier disputed claims of agency overreach, attributing the heightened importance of fiscal headroom calculations to political choices rather than administrative expansion. The fiscal rules and official forecasts gain outsized influence primarily because ministers choose to run public spending on razor-thin margins.
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Source: UK Parliament Treasury Committee
