Turkish households lowered their inflation expectations for the year ahead while raising their expectations for the lira’s depreciation against the dollar, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) Household Expectations Survey for October 2026.
Inflation view eases
The 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation fell by 1.85 percentage points from the previous month to 43.75 percent. The survey drew responses from 3,152 households, with results obtained by aggregating their answers.
Fuel and energy and food were the product groups households considered had risen most in price over the past year and also the ones they expect to rise most over the next 12 months. Some 38.9 percent of participants named fuel and energy as the product group with the largest price increases. The share citing fuel and energy rose by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Expectations for housing prices also eased. Households now expect housing prices to rise by 30.36 percent over the next 12 months, down 0.33 percentage points from the prior survey.
Lira expectations weaken
Households raised their expectation for the dollar exchange rate 12 months ahead. The expected rate climbed by 0.96 lira to reach 56.86 lira per dollar.
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Investment preferences shifted modestly toward tangible assets. The share of participants saying they would buy gold as their first choice rose 0.3 percentage points to 43.3 percent. The share favouring house, shop or land purchases as a second-place preference rose 2.0 percentage points to 35.6 percent.
Separately, US annual inflation stood at 3.7 percent in September, near its 31-day high.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
