Major oil companies are preparing to report strong third-quarter 2026 profits, with refining margins expected to reach historic levels amid Middle East tensions and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Shell and TotalEnergies are due to report on 29 October, with BP, Chevron and Exxon following on 30 October.
Refining margins surge
Shell has forecast a refining margin of $42 a barrel, described as a record level. Refining margins at Shell, BP and TotalEnergies are expected to be three to four times higher than in the same period last year, according to the Straits Times report cited.
Exxon’s distribution earnings are expected to rise by $4.5 billion from higher refining margins compared with the previous quarter. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals segment is estimated to generate $4 billion in cash flow. Shell is expected to announce a $3.5 billion share buyback programme in the fourth quarter.
Cash discipline over expansion
Companies are reportedly directing cash toward debt repayment and balance sheet strengthening rather than new investment. Chevron and Exxon have reportedly said they are prioritising debt repayment ahead of their Q3 results.
BP reached its net debt reduction target a year ahead of schedule, and the company is expected to keep focusing on debt reduction while holding capital expenditure flat until 2028. Analyst reports cited expect Chevron investors to watch its Venezuela operations and its TCO joint venture contract in Kazakhstan closely alongside the earnings figures.
Source: Shell
