Most analysts polled expect the Banco de la República to raise its intervention rate at its October meeting, according to a survey conducted by Anif. Of 19 entities surveyed between 13 and 16 October, 13, or 68.4 percent, expect a 25 basis point increase to 12.50 percent from the current 12.25 percent. The remaining six, 31.6 percent, expect the board to hold.
Inflation above target
Annual inflation reached 6.29 percent in September, up from 6.24 percent in August and well above the central bank’s 4 percent upper target limit, a gap of 2.29 percentage points. About 72 percent of annual inflation is concentrated in services and food. Analysts expect the rate to end 2026 at a median 12.50 percent, with inflation projected at 6.8 percent for the year. They see inflation easing further to 5.2 percent in 2027 and to 4 percent in 2028.
Two more monetary policy meetings remain scheduled for 2026 after October’s.
A divided board expected
Respondents also weighed in on how the board itself might vote. A majority, 63.1 percent of responses, expect a split decision, most likely by a 5-2 margin. If the rate rises by 25 basis points, César Giraldo was named most often as a likely dissenter, with 12 mentions, followed by Laura Moisá with 11; Miguel Gómez and Mauricio Villamizar each drew two mentions in that scenario.
If the board instead holds the rate steady, Mauricio Villamizar was named most often as a potential dissenter, with six mentions, followed by Bibiana Taboada with three. Laura Moisá and César Giraldo each received two mentions under the hold scenario. These figures reflect analysts’ forecasts rather than a confirmed board vote.
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Source: Anif
