Standard Chartered expects the Bank of Korea to leave its base rate unchanged at 3.00% in both October and November, according to a research report from analyst Chong Hoon Park.
Hold despite hike risk
The analysts wrote that they acknowledge the rising risk of a hike in November, but said a sharp correction in the KOSPI and the resulting tightening in financial conditions support their base case of a hold that month.
They said they will watch the October meeting closely for any shift in the balance of risks facing the central bank.
The report points to sticky underlying inflation as one reason the Bank of Korea has room to stay patient. It also cites strong growth tied to artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand.
Hikes seen in 2027
Standard Chartered still projects two rate increases of 25 basis points each in the first half of 2027, which would lift the base rate to a terminal level of 3.50% by the end of that year.
The call rests on the trade-off between inflation pressure and the drag from weaker financial conditions after the equity-market correction.
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Source: Standard Chartered
