Analysts polled by the Banco de la República expect the Board of Directors to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting later this month, taking it to 12.5 percent. The projection comes from the central bank’s Monthly Survey of Economic Analysts’ Expectations, published in October 2026.
A pause seen after October
The September Board decision already delivered a 25 basis point increase. The survey suggests the move expected this month would be the last for the rest of 2026. Analysts expect the rate to begin falling again in mid-2027, with the median projection putting the policy rate at 11 percent by the end of that year.
Inflation expectations also moved higher. Analysts now see end-2026 inflation at 6.85 percent, up from 6.81 percent in the September survey. Food inflation expectations rose more sharply, to 9.26 percent for end-2026 from 8.58 percent previously, an increase of 68 basis points. Analysts expect annual consumer price inflation to fall to 3.40 percent by September 2031.
Inflation target still distant
The Banco de la República targets inflation of 3 percent, within a tolerance range of 2 percent to 4 percent. Analysts do not expect inflation to return within that range until September 2031.
The survey also revised the exchange rate outlook. Analysts now put the end-2026 Tasa Representativa del Mercado at 3,257 Colombian pesos per US dollar, up from 3,200 pesos in the September survey, a revision of 57 pesos.
Source: Banco de la República
