Indonesia’s consumer inflation reached 3.23 percent year-on-year in October 2026, according to Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), keeping it within the central bank’s 2.5±1 percent target range. The figure came in below the upper bound of the target, though the pressure was not spread evenly across the archipelago.
Food drives the gain
The food, beverages and tobacco group contributed 1.40 percentage points, the largest share of the total. Bird’s eye chili, tomato and red chili were the main contributors within that group.
Food prices were the clearest source of pressure in the October data.
Eastern provinces at the top
The five provinces with the highest inflation were all in Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, a region grouped as Sulampua. North Sulawesi, Papua Pegunungan, West Papua, North Maluku and Central Papua made up the list.
El Nino is often cited as the main cause of food price rises. Yet the drought affects nearly all of Indonesia, while price pressure concentrates in the east. The expected end of the El Nino risk period is February 2027.
Logistics as the bottleneck
At a regional event in Makassar on 23 October, South Sulawesi’s Deputy Governor cited limited cold chain capacity as a main obstacle to controlling food inflation in Sulampua. Distance between producing and consuming areas compounds the problem.
Bank Indonesia and regional governments introduced the Tallukarsa Pangan Sulampua framework at the same event. It comprises three components: Karsa Daya, Karsa Sambung and Karsa Tata.
Related: Indonesia's October inflation at 0.22% on red chili prices · Colombia inflation seen rising to 6.38% in October, survey shows
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS)
