Colombia’s annual consumer price inflation is expected to rise to 6.38 percent in October, up from 6.29 percent in September, according to a financial market survey by Citi. Twenty of the 21 institutions surveyed anticipate an acceleration, while Asobancaria forecasts a slowdown to 6.25 percent. The September reading was a two-year high.
The Dane, the statistics agency, publishes the October figure next Monday. Analysts point to the first effects of El Niño on harvests as a source of upward pressure, along with indexed rents, electricity and gas tariffs and food prices. Currency appreciation should lower the cost of imported vehicles, appliances and motorcycles, partly offsetting transport pressure.
Forecasts cluster between 6.30 and 6.44 percent
Skandia and Positiva expect 6.30 percent, Itaú 6.33 percent, Anif 6.34 percent and Corficolombiana 6.35 percent. Bancolombia, Banco de Bogotá and Acciones y Valores put the figure at 6.36 percent, while Citi and Banco de Occidente expect 6.37 percent.
At the upper end, Banco Agrario forecasts 6.44 percent and Aval Asset Management 6.54 percent, the highest in the survey. Aval attributes its figure to continued food price pressures and unexpected energy and gas tariff increases linked to El Niño, partly offset by moderating tradable goods prices and a slight decline in gasoline.
Housing and food drive the monthly outlook
Itaú expects housing to be the main driver, with the division rising 0.37 percent month on month. It also estimates food inflation at 0.45 percent monthly, which it expects to moderate. Davivienda forecasts a monthly change of 0.27 percent, with housing and services contributing most through energy tariffs.
Banco de Bogotá’s Camilo Pérez said October usually brings low cost-of-living increases, but this year could be higher than usual.
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Source: The Dane
