Ternium’s steel shipments in Mexico rose 13 percent in the first nine months of 2026, and the company’s chief executive says Mexico’s tariffs on Asian products are helping. Máximo Vedoya said the gains are real but that weak enforcement limits how far they can go.
Import substitution behind the gains
Vedoya estimated that import substitution explains between 70 and 80 percent of the growth in Ternium’s Mexican shipments.
Mexico imposed new tariffs in January on goods from countries without free trade agreements, including up to 35 percent on some steel products. Mexican steel consumption fell 10.1 percent in 2025, to about 25 million metric tons.
Circumvention keeps pressure on imports
He argued that these practices blunt the effect of the duties.
Imports of flat steel still run at about 400,000 metric tons a month, Vedoya said, although Mexican steel imports fell 15.8 percent in 2025. He said the first priority should be making sure every import pays the duties already in force.
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Washington pressure and the wider market
Bloomberg reported in July that Donald Trump is pressing Mexico to match US barriers on Chinese steel and aluminium. Vedoya said that Mexico should first secure full payment of existing tariffs before considering a match of the 50 percent US and other-market duties.
Mexico, he said, has the capacity to replace almost all of its imported flat steel over time. Chinese companies should be able to invest and manufacture in the region, he added, but should not simply ship finished products. Vedoya also said there is no timeline for an agreement on US Section 232 steel tariffs.
Mexican steel exports to the US fell 33 percent in 2025, to 1.56 million metric tons. Mexico accounts for about half of Ternium’s steel shipments and sales.
Source: Ternium
