China’s foreign-trade surplus reached $805.51 billion in the first eight months of 2026, marking a 3 percent increase from the same period last year, as export volumes continue growing.
Trade surplus and export outlook
Customs data showed that China maintained a substantial foreign-trade surplus of $805.51 billion through August 2026, building on a record surplus of $1,200 billion last year. Goldman Sachs projects that export growth will remain robust in the short run despite challenges ahead, reflecting increased trade volumes since 2021. However, the bank’s analysis highlights that expansion may slow as partner countries face rising trade deficits.
By 2025, 82 countries are expected to have trade deficits exceeding 3 percent of their GDP, up from just 24 countries in 2005. This group includes 67 low-income states that collectively account for 44 percent of China’s total exports, suggesting that demand from key trading partners could diminish over time.
Political context and policy signals
In July, China’s Politburo under Xi Jinping emphasized broadening international economic and trade cooperation and urged efforts to promote more balanced trade relationships. This follows warnings from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about the need to rebalance trade relations to avoid what she described as renewed economic shocks linked to China.
Goldman Sachs cautions that partner-country trade deficits cannot expand indefinitely, potentially limiting China’s export growth beyond the near term despite strong immediate performance. The automotive sector reflects similar pressures, with profit margins expected to decline from 6.4 percent in 2021 to 4.8 percent by 2025.
Source: Customs data
