The next day the Ibovespa fell 14 percent after incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff.
Corporate buyers drove the volume
Mercado Bitcoin said corporate clients generated 78 percent of its Sunday trading, while retail customers accounted for 22 percent. The exchange said the main driver was companies seeking to protect their Treasuries.
Trading activity rose sharply from the previous week. Mercado Bitcoin recorded a jump of roughly 800 percent in USDT volume and an 865 percent increase in bitcoin trading compared with the previous Sunday.
Stablecoins across venues
Biscoint, which tracks prices across 10 venues, reported that turnover in USDT against the real rose 150 percent on the previous Sunday, while USDC turnover rose 318 percent. Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, said stablecoins were a simple way for investors to dollarize part of their assets. Combined USDT and USDC turnover against the real reached 1.84 billion reais on Monday, or $350 million.
Market reaction and prediction markets
The Ibovespa had rallied 7.7 percent after the first round three weeks earlier, when Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula. The dollar rose more than 8 percent against the real on Monday, its largest daily gain since 1999. Kalshi and Polymarket have been blocked in Brazil since April.
Einar Knobel, chief executive and co-founder of TxODDS, said he would not read the outcome as a failure of prediction markets. “The mechanism did what it is designed to do with the information it was given,” he said.
Source: Mercado Bitcoin
