Bitcoin crossed above its 365-day simple moving average near $80,900, exiting a 310-day spell beneath the technical indicator, according to Altcoin Pro. The digital asset traded at $82,900 and reached $84,586.55 on ticker feeds following the breakout on Sept. 22. The milestone marks the end of the cryptocurrency’s longest sustained period below the one-year trendline since its prior prolonged market downturn.
Historical precedent and risk
In five previous instances where bitcoin regained its 365-day moving average after spending at least 90 days below it, the cryptocurrency recorded gains over the following 12 months. Those historical advances ranged between 59 percent and 1,400 percent. The sample excludes periods where trading below the line was briefer.
Technical breakouts have occasionally failed. When shorter intervals below the trendline were included, historical records identified two failed breakouts. Bitcoin declined 27 percent within 90 days following a failed breakout in July 2018. It also dropped 59 percent within 90 days of an invalid move in March 2022.
Moving average divergence
Ryan Horst, founder of Altcoin Pro, described the move above the threshold as encouraging after 310 days below the line, while noting that traders would want to see the level hold. Altcoin Pro founders Horst and Joni Zhuleku stated that the 365-day average is still catching up to signals that the 200-day metric had already provided in mid-August.
Horst and Zhuleku observed that while the 365-day line shows where the asset stood six months earlier, the 200-day reacts roughly three months faster, a timespan they described as representing the entire trade. Bitcoin had spent 293 days below its 200-day moving average before crossing back above it. That span compares with 436 days below the measure during the 2022-23 bear market.
Bitcoin had traded at a 19 percent premium over its 200-day line near $70,800 before a modest dip that lasted 36 hours. In wider market context, the asset’s 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average on Sept. 8, forming a golden cross pattern.
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Source: Altcoin Pro
