The dollar traded just below 160.00 yen in the Asian session on Friday, close to its highest level since early September, as intervention fears resurfaced following a run of rapid gains for the US currency.
Officials flag fast moves
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Thursday that recent currency movements had been too fast. He added it was too early to forget the intervention carried out over the summer.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are watching one-sided, swift moves in the currency market. She said the government would respond appropriately to volatility and would engage with the US Treasury on the matter.
By MacroHerald’s own measurement at 02:43 GMT on 13 November, USD/JPY stood at 159.919 yen, its highest in 31 days. Weekly CFTC data, in a report dated 3 November, showed speculators holding a net long position of 102,321 contracts in the yen.
Technical levels in view
On the charts, the pair’s 100-day simple moving average sits at 158.97, with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 158.49. The 61.8% retracement at 159.79 now serves as immediate support, while the 78.6% level at 161.64 stands as the next key hurdle before any retest of the cycle high near 164.00. Lower levels at 157.20, 155.59 and a structural anchor at 152.99 remain in play should the pair turn lower.
The dollar has paused after a three-day rally that took it to its highest level since April 2025. Markets are pricing a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, according to MUFG/BTMU, with a small probability assigned to a larger 50-basis-point move; Fed hikes priced by December stand at 28 basis points, rising to 43 basis points by the following meeting in January. Rising bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December have lent the yen some support, even as a wide US-Japan interest rate differential keeps carry trades active. Spot USD/JPY is on track for a third straight weekly gain.
Data: Swissquote · CFTC
