The US Bureau of Economic Analysis put third-quarter GDP growth at 3.4 percent annualized in its first estimate, above the 3.2 percent consensus. The figure was published on 29 October, a day after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate target range at 3.75-4 percent.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model had pointed to 3.3 percent for the quarter before the release. The same model projects 3.2 percent growth for the fourth quarter. GDPNow is an algorithmic estimate updated several times a month, not an official statistic.
What the growth figure means for rates
Strong growth reduces the case for rapid rate cuts. The Fed had maintained its range at the 28 October meeting, and a robust quarter makes near-term easing harder to justify.
The figure is annualized, so it is not directly comparable with European quarter-on-quarter numbers. On the European convention, 3.4 percent annualized is roughly 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Crypto and the rate outlook
Bitcoin has been sensitive to expectations for policy rates. The article’s framing is that firm growth cuts both ways for the asset. In our own market data, bitcoin was at $77,176 at 01:35 GMT on 3 November, down 1.72 percent from the previous close.
The US federal funds rate stood at 3.88 percent in our measurement at the same time, in force since 30 October.
Related: US GDP grows 3.4% in third quarter, beating forecasts · Mexico's economy grows 3.2% in third quarter, strongest since 2023
Source: Federal Reserve · US Bureau of Economic Analysis | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed · CoinGecko
