Markets are now pricing 97 basis points of Bank of Canada hikes over the year ahead against 92 basis points for the Federal Reserve, narrowing the gap between the two rate paths. The Federal Reserve’s policy rate sits at 3.75-4.00 percent, compared with 2.25 percent at the Bank of Canada.
Domestic pressures mount
Canada unexpectedly shed jobs in the prior Friday’s report, with losses concentrated in government healthcare and education positions. The housing sector appears to be entering another leg down. The discount on Western Canadian Select oil has also widened.
RBC cardholder data showed core sales growth of 0.5 percent month on month in September. Entertainment and arts spending rose 1.4 percent, travel spending rose 1 percent, and dining spending rose 0.3 percent. Prime Minister Carney announced a new pipeline to the west coast, a project expected to take five to ten years to build.
Rate path in focus
Resistance for USD/CAD sits in the 1.45-1.47 range, the area of the so-called Liberation Day peaks reached earlier.
By MacroHerald’s own measurement at 18:01 GMT on 14 October 2026, USD/CAD stood at 1.4253, near its 31-day high. US annual inflation stood at 3.7 percent in September, also near its 31-day high.
Related: Dollar index hits 102.6, highest level since April 2025
Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed · Swissquote
