Poland’s Fiscal Council (Rada Fiskalna) has warned that the GDP growth path assumed for 2029 and 2030 looks too high. The warning came after a Wednesday meeting that discussed the Strategy for public finance debt management for 2027-2030. The Council Ministers adopted the strategy at the end of September.
Consolidation under scrutiny
The Council said the scale and concentration of planned fiscal consolidation make the growth forecast hard to justify. Without a clear account of consolidation measures and of the factors offsetting their effect on the economy, the path cannot be considered sufficiently supported. The Strategy assumes the primary deficit of general government falls from 4.0 percent of GDP in 2027 to 0.6 percent in 2030. About 85 percent of that improvement falls in the last two years.
The Council warned this could produce a fiscal cliff. Its statement put the risk plainly: the deficit reduction is back-loaded.
Debt outside the national definition
The Council also criticised the move of borrowing to another institution. Transferring borrowing to another place is not fiscal consolidation, it said, because it does not reduce the economic burden of debt or the need to service it. Effective debt servicing costs on BGK borrowing are higher than on State Treasury debt, the Council added.
The Strategy projects State Treasury debt at 59.9 percent of GDP in 2030, while the State public debt ratio is 58.3 percent. On the EU definition, Ministry of Finance forecasts put general government debt at 59.7 percent of GDP in 2025, rising to 69.3 percent in 2027 and 76.6 percent in 2030.
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Servicing costs and the snowball
Public sector debt servicing costs are forecast to climb from 2.5 percent of GDP in 2025 to 3.6 percent in 2030. The snowball effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio is 0.12 percentage points in 2029 and 0.31 points in 2030. The Council said the Strategy should be prepared and consulted in parallel with the preliminary draft budget law.
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Source: Rada Fiskalna
