The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) raised its end-2027 inflation forecast to 21 percent in its last Inflation Report of the year. The bank also revised up its other forecasts and interim targets, in line with the Medium-Term Program. The new projection rests on assumptions of falling oil prices and easing food inflation. It also assumes weak domestic demand, a tight monetary policy stance and fiscal policy that supports disinflation.
What the forecast assumes
The bank’s projection depends on several conditions holding at once. Oil prices are expected to decline. Food price increases are expected to slow. Domestic demand is expected to stay weak. Monetary policy is expected to remain tight.
Fiscal policy is also expected to support the disinflation path.
Risks for 2027 inflation
The report frames the forecast as a map of risks rather than a settled outlook. A higher or lower path for oil and food prices would move the figure directly. Changes in demand and in the policy stance would do the same.
The timing of the revision, at the end of the year, places it alongside the government’s medium-term plan. The two documents are meant to point in the same direction.
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