Hungary’s annual inflation fell to 1.6 percent in September, while Romania’s rose to 6.6 percent, according to the National Statistics Institute (INS). Romania’s reading climbed from 6.2 percent in August, reversing part of the summer decline. US annual inflation, by our own measurement, stood at 3.7 percent in September.
Diverging paths in the region
Hungarian inflation peaked near 26 percent in 2022 and 2023, driven by election spending, budget deficits and a weakening forint. The forint has since strengthened this year, and the figure now sits well below the central bank’s 2.5 percent target.
Romania’s inflation, by contrast, eased through the summer after the removal of the energy price cap and the fading of last year’s VAT and excise increases. It was 10.4 percent in June before falling further, and has now turned up again.
What is driving Romanian prices
Diesel prices rose 37.6 percent year on year and petrol 28.4 percent, while services climbed 11 percent. Rents are up 39 percent and coffee 13.7 percent. Food prices overall rose a more modest 3 percent.
Average net wages grew 5.6 percent in August, so real pay continues to fall. It has now declined for 14 consecutive months.
Outlook for the central bank
The National Bank of Romania held its key rate at 6.50 percent and expects inflation to rise toward year-end, citing fuel, energy and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict and drought. Economists do not expect rate cuts before spring 2027.
The IMF forecasts Romanian inflation at 8.2 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027. For Hungary it projects 1.9 percent and 2.8 percent over the same years.
Related: German inflation climbs to 3.3% in September, Destatis says
Source: National Statistics Institute (INS) | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
