Hong Kong’s economy grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from a revised 4.2 percent in the second quarter, according to UOB economist Ho Woei Chen. UOB raised its growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027.
Exports and investment drive the gain
Goods exports rose 30.4 percent year-on-year in the quarter, and gross domestic fixed capital formation grew 7.3 percent. Ho linked the strength to the semiconductors and AI supply chain. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, reversing a 0.7 percent decline in the second quarter.
Private consumption grew 2.8 percent and government consumption 1.7 percent. Consumer sentiment softened, Ho said, because of Middle East uncertainty, higher interest rates and tighter mainland scrutiny of capital outflows. A stabilising property market and rising tourist arrivals offered some cushion.
UOB lifts its forecasts
UOB now expects Hong Kong GDP to grow 5.0 percent in 2026, up from 3.9 percent previously. For 2027 it raised its estimate to 3.0 percent from 2.4 percent. Bloomberg’s estimate for the third quarter was 3.7 percent, and UOB’s own was 3.0 percent.
Retail sales value grew for a 17th consecutive month in September. If UOB’s 2026 forecast holds, growth would be the strongest since the post-pandemic rebound of 6.5 percent in 2021.
Risks remain external
UOB flagged external and financial risks to the outlook.
Source: UOB
