Goldman Sachs economists say the winning margin in Brazil’s presidential second round is a key figure for investors to watch. The result was due to be released by the TSE from 17:00 local time on Sunday, the 25th. Lula (PT) faces Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the runoff.
What the margins signal
In a client report, Goldman Sachs said a difference of less than 1 percentage point over the runner-up could increase the risk of challenging the result, especially in a highly polarized environment. Such a result could be read as a fragile mandate to govern. A margin above 4 points would give the winner a clear mandate, the bank said.
The bank noted that abstention in the first round was above the rates of previous elections. Lula led abroad in 64 countries in the first round, while Flávio Bolsonaro won in 35.
Economic backdrop
Goldman Sachs said real GDP per capita grew on average 0.15 percent between the third quarter of 2011 and the second quarter of 2026. Real investment spending in the second quarter of 2026 was 8.3 percent below its peak in the second quarter of 2013.
The economists said financial markets are expected to react positively after the vote to signs of social pacification and political stability. They also pointed to policies and reforms that could boost investment and growth. In their words, a change in the economic policy regime is urgent.
Source: Goldman Sachs
