Indonesia’s palm oil industry association Gapki has warned that El Nino is beginning to suppress plantation productivity, with the weather pattern potentially cutting crude palm oil production by up to 3 million tons, mainly in 2027.
Drought and delayed upkeep
Eddy Martono, Chairman of Gapki, said dry conditions linked to El Nino are already affecting farmers’ ability to maintain their plantations. Speaking Thursday (12/11) at the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) 2026 in Bali, he said economic pressure, not choice, was behind the delays. “In several regions farmers were forced to delay fertilization. That decision was not because they wanted it, but because economic conditions forced them to take that step. The impact of El Nino is not only drought but also fires,” he said.
Martono said the consequences could extend well beyond a single harvest. “The impact takes the form of productivity declines that not only last one season but can continue into subsequent seasons. We must not ignore this reality,” he said. Fires triggered by the dry spell can damage plants and require time and cost to restore productivity, he added. Gapki has urged replanting of older palms to address the risk.
Seeking drought-tolerant genetics
To help the industry adapt, Gapki distributed 29,281 wild oil palm seeds sourced from Tanzania in May 2026. The batch included 102 nigrescens and virescens accessions and 18 tenera accessions. “We hope this genetic material can be developed into oil palm varieties that are tolerant to drought,” Martono said.
National palm oil production reached 47 million tons through September 2026, up 8.4 percent from the same period the previous year. Exports of palm oil products over the same period totalled 27.3 million tons, a rise of 9.6 percent, generating $32.3 billion in foreign exchange earnings. Domestic consumption stood at 18.8 million tons. The biodiesel B50 mandate continues to support domestic absorption of palm oil.
Source: Gapki
