Brent crude averaged $124 per barrel in October, about $10 above the September average.
Fourth straight upgrade
It now expects Brent to average $97.44 a barrel this year, up from a previous forecast of $96.32. The WTI forecast for this year rose only slightly, to $88.29 a barrel from $88.21.
For 2027 the agency also raised its outlook. Brent is now seen averaging $85.78 a barrel next year, up from $83.74, while WTI is projected at $80.54, against a prior estimate of $79.74. The EIA said it still expects prices to decline next year, with Brent spot prices holding near $100 for the rest of this year before easing.
Inventories and output swing
Global oil inventories are forecast to have fallen by 1.2 million barrels per day on average in the third quarter of this year. The agency expects stocks to start rising again in the fourth quarter and then build by 3.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2027.
Global oil production is expected to fall by 4.6 million barrels per day this year compared with the prior year, before rising by 6.7 million barrels per day in 2027. Middle East crude output shut in by conflicts peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May but had fallen to an average of 2.5 million barrels per day by October.
