Danmarks Nationalbank raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Denmark to 4.0 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent, pointing to the impact of pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk’s sales and manufacturing footprint in the United States.
Foreign output lifts headline expansion
The upward revision of 2.2 percentage points for 2026 reflects heavy contributions from activity based outside domestic borders. In March, the central bank had projected 1.8 percent growth for 2026 without mentioning the pharmaceutical sector. Danmarks Nationalbank also raised its 2027 gross domestic product projection to 2.3 percent from 1.8 percent, while leaving the 2028 growth outlook unchanged at 2 percent.
Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen noted that the expansion would generate minimal domestic heat. The Danish economy has resisted global turmoil so far, Thomsen said, adding that the institution expects strong GDP growth this year without signs of additional pressure on wages or prices. He emphasized that this occurs because a large part of this growth comes from production abroad, which uses Danish labor and capital only in a limited way.
Price agreements alter terms of trade
Novo Nordisk reached an agreement with the US government covering certain weight-loss and diabetes treatments. That deal lowered medicine prices for Medicare and TrumpRx patients by up to 30 percent. Danmarks Nationalbank noted that this price reduction will worsen Denmark’s terms of trade.
The US market remains central. Overseas activity drives the revision.
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Source: Danmarks Nationalbank
