Participants now expect year-end consumer price inflation of 30.04 percent, up from 29.63 percent in the previous survey.
Inflation views edge higher
The 12-months-ahead CPI expectation rose to 24.04 percent from 23.89 percent. The 24-months-ahead figure also ticked up, to 18.02 percent from 17.94 percent.
On the probability distribution for 12-month-ahead inflation, participants assigned an average probability of 38.25 percent to a range of 23.00 to 24.99 percent, the largest single bracket. They put 25.27 percent probability on the 21.00-22.99 percent range and 19.29 percent on 25.00-26.99 percent.
For the 24-month horizon, the largest probability weighting, 35.85 percent, went to the 17.00-19.99 percent range. Participants assigned 24.47 percent probability to 14.00-16.99 percent and 19.65 percent to 20.00-22.99 percent.
Rate and currency expectations
Survey participants expect the overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market to end the current month at 35.91 percent, slightly below the previous survey’s 36 percent. They expect the central bank’s policy rate to stand at 35 percent after the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
The lira is expected to trade at 51.61 against the US dollar by year-end, up from 51.55 in the previous survey. Looking further out, participants see the dollar at 60.77 lira in 12 months, compared with 59.26 previously.
Growth expectations held steady. Participants put 2026 GDP growth at 2.9 percent and 2027 growth at 3.9 percent, both unchanged from the prior survey. The survey drew responses from 70 participants across the real and financial sectors.
Related: Colombia inflation seen rising to 6.38% in October, survey shows
