Markets took in a dense week of economic data, spanning an IMF forecast revision for Türkiye, an MSCI decision on Turkish equities, a Fed regional survey, an IEA fuel agreement, a fresh US inflation reading and this year’s Nobel Economics Prize.
IMF and MSCI moves
The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for this year to 3.1 percent. For Türkiye, the IMF put growth at 2.7 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year.
MSCI temporarily froze certain index changes for Turkish equities until a further announcement.
Fed, IEA and inflation
The Fed’s Beige Book found that rising energy costs strengthened price pressures in about half of the 12 Fed districts it covers. The federal funds rate stood at 3.88 percent as of 17 October 2026, according to MacroHerald’s own measurement.
The International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to supply more than 20 million barrels of diesel, on top of remaining oil from a record emergency reserve release committed in March. US consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in five months, driven by higher fuel costs; separately, US annual inflation stood near a 31-day high at 3.7 percent in September.
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Lira and Nobel Prize
Commerzbank said the pace of nominal lira depreciation is not yet near convergence to its fair value level.
The 2026 Nobel Economics Prize went to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford, recognised for work on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stability.
Source: IMF | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
