Mexico could face diesel supply issues and holds only around 13 days of reserves if the United States restricts fuel exports, energy analyst Rosanety Barrios warned during the Moody’s Inside LatAm Mexico 2026 event. The country lacks strategic fuel inventories, leaving domestic distribution vulnerable to cross-border trade disruptions.
Import dependence and storage
Mexican consumers burn roughly 400,000 barrels per day of diesel. Imports cover between 30 percent and 50 percent of that domestic demand. Combined storage capacity held by state oil firm Pemex and private operators provides approximately 13 days of total consumption.
Barrios underscored that Mexico relies heavily on American fuel refining to balance domestic consumption requirements. Without strategic reserves, any trade friction would rapidly squeeze local supply chains.
Deer Park refinery exposure
Pemex acquired the Deer Park refinery located in Houston, Texas, in January 2022. The facility processes 340,000 barrels per day of crude oil. It produces 90,000 barrels per day of diesel.
Because the Deer Park plant operates inside the United States, foreign export restrictions would also apply to its output, limiting the state producer’s ability to ship refined fuels back home to cover domestic shortages.
