Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for October 2026 at US$117.24 per barrel, up US$4.43 from the previous month’s US$112.81. The ministry said the rise reflected international market dynamics and escalating geopolitical tensions that raised war risk premiums. Laode Sulaeman, Director General of Oil and Gas, said the increase occurred across all international benchmarks.
Benchmarks climb across the board
Brent on ICE averaged US$108.34 per barrel in October, up US$6.32 month on month. West Texas Intermediate on Nymex averaged US$96.94, up US$1.25. Dated Brent rose US$8 to US$124.77, and the OPEC Basket reached US$112.13, up US$1.56.
Security threats to energy facilities and tanker lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab disrupted supply, the ministry said. Tanker transit through Hormuz briefly fell to a low. Global crude inventories also tightened, according to reports from the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Diesel tightness and forecast range
Tight diesel supply led refineries to raise crude processing, the ministry said. US commercial crude inventories stood 3.8 percent below their five-year average, according to the EIA.
The government expects the ICP for November 2026 to stay between US$103.94 and US$108.94 per barrel. Sulaeman pointed to factors that could ease pressure, including the recovery of oil output in the US Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Isaias. He also cited a possible reduction in risk premiums if global diplomacy gains traction.
Also Read
The US midterm elections and global geopolitical policy are factors to watch, the ministry said.
Related: WTI crude tries to stabilize after 17.5% slide from October high · FAO Food price index falls 1.2% in October, still up 5.9% on year
Source: US Energy Information Administration · Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
