After 26 consecutive months of positive real annual returns, bullion delivered a nominal return of 14.59 percent over that period but a real loss once inflation is stripped out: 10.06 percent when deflated by the producer price index and 11.7 percent when deflated by the consumer price index. The CPI-based loss was the largest in 46 months.
A streak built since 2024
In January 2026 gold’s real return deflated by CPI reached 66.41 percent, the highest since the data compilation began in 1997. Rising global geopolitical risks had drawn investors toward gold as a safe haven over that stretch, while expectations that inflation would stay elevated worldwide, driven by rising energy prices, had also supported prices. Those same inflation expectations put pressure on gold in October, turning the run of gains into a loss.
Other assets fared worse in October. The dollar lost 8.92 percent in real terms deflated by CPI, the euro lost 12.26 percent, and the BIST 100 index lost 15.09 percent. By contrast, domestic borrowing instruments returned 4.04 percent in real terms year-on-year in October, extending a streak of real gains to 13 months. Gross deposit interest returned 0.29 percent in real terms over the same horizon, a three-month streak.
Positioning and the wider backdrop
Domestic borrowing instruments and deposit interest were the only two assets in the comparison to post positive real returns in the year to October. CFTC data show speculators held a net long gold position of 179,548 contracts in the report dated 3 November, down from 186,451 contracts a week earlier. In the United States, annual inflation stood at 3.7 percent in September, near a 31-day high. By our own measurement, gold traded at $4,018.09 an ounce as of 18:12 GMT on 10 November.
Related: Gold falls below $3,900 to lowest since late October
Data: Swissquote · FRED — St. Louis Fed · CFTC
