Market analysts raised their 2026 Selic rate projection to 13.75 percent from 13.50 percent, according to the Banco Central’s Focus survey released on Monday. The survey also lowered its 2026 GDP growth estimate slightly, to 1.75 percent from 1.76 percent.
Exchange rate and growth outlook
The 2026 dollar exchange rate projection rose to R$5.35 from R$5.34. For 2027, analysts kept the Selic projection at 12.50 percent, while the GDP growth estimate for that year fell to 1.15 percent from 1.20 percent.
Growth expectations for 2028 were unchanged at 1.80 percent, and for 2029 at 2 percent. The 2029 Selic projection stands at 10.25 percent.
Inflation expectations shift
The IPCA inflation projection for 2026 held at 5.22 percent. The 2027 estimate rose to 4.90 percent from 4.76 percent, while the 2029 estimate moved up to 4 percent from 3.98 percent.
The IGP-M projection for 2026 edged up to 6.10 percent from 6.05 percent. Analysts kept their 2028 IPCA estimate at 4 percent.
Source: Banco Central
