Foreign investors could pull between US$2 billion and US$6 billion out of Indonesia’s stock market if MSCI downgrades the country to standalone market status, according to economist Irman Faiz of Bank Danamon. The estimate covers both active and passive funds. MSCI is due to announce its November 2026 index rebalancing review on 11 November 2026 Central European Time, which is 12 November 2026 at 05:00 WIB.
Scale of the potential outflow
Faiz gave the range in rupiah terms as well, converting it at Rp18,000 to the US dollar. On that basis the outflow would total between Rp36 trillion and Rp108 trillion.
Faiz made the remarks at a Bank Indonesia media briefing in Sabang. He said the stock outflow is not a fundamental driver of the rupiah’s weakness against the US dollar. He cited a study range of Rp11 to Rp12 of rupiah depreciation for every US$100 million of foreign stock outflow.
Foreign investors wait and see
Faiz expects foreign investors to hold their positions rather than add shares until the review period ends. He described this as a wait-and-see approach. Foreign investors were net buyers of Rp328.20 billion on 6 November 2026, but they have sold Rp98.08 trillion net so far in 2026.
Market activity has softened during the same week. Bursa Efek Indonesia’s market capitalisation stood at Rp8,744 trillion in the week of 2 to 6 November, down 1.34 percent from Rp8,862 trillion. Average daily transaction value fell 23 percent from Rp14.34 trillion to Rp11.04 trillion.
Also Read
Exchange response to index risk
BEI president director Jeffrey said the exchange is prioritising transparency, liquidity and market supervision ahead of the rebalancing. He did not detail the specific measures the exchange will take.
Source: Bank Danamon
