Analysts warned that the Arctic polar vortex could weaken unusually early, possibly bringing cold air to Europe in the coming weeks, while EU gas storage sits at a more than decade-low level. Sudden stratospheric warming may weaken the polar vortex, potentially pushing Arctic cold air toward the continent. Weather model effects could appear in late November or December, though any lasting cold is uncertain.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed EU storage at 73.75 percent on 5 November. Germany stood at 60.25 percent and Hungary at 76.93 percent on the same date. Europe started the heating season with unusually low storage.
What a cold spell could do
The International Energy Agency warned that EU storage could fall below 10 percent by the end of March 2027 under unfavourable conditions. That scenario combines a cold winter with sustained LNG disruption through the Hormuz Strait. The agency’s warning rests on that combination, not on the cold alone.
That would add 1.1 billion cubic metres of heating gas demand in Northwest Europe, Italy, Spain and Austria. If that extra demand were fully met from storage, end-March levels would drop to 15.5 percent, against 17 percent expected under normal weather.
Bloomberg’s view of the risk
Bloomberg calculated that a single much colder-than-average week could pressure European gas supply. Storage below 30 percent may see extractable volumes decline gradually.
Source: Gas Infrastructure Europe
