The rupiah weakened past 18,100 per US dollar in morning trading on Monday (26/10), opening at 18,085 and sliding to 18,105 by 09.30 WIB.
Outflows weigh on currency
Lukman Leong, analyst at Doo Financial, said the rupiah would likely move within a range of 18,050 to 18,150 per US dollar during the session. He said the rupiah remained pressured by foreign fund outflows from domestic equities and uncertain geopolitical factors that have kept oil above $100 a barrel.
Other regional currencies showed mixed moves against the dollar. The Thai baht weakened 0.07 percent and the peso weakened 0.36 percent, while the Malaysian ringgit strengthened 0.02 percent, the Chinese yuan strengthened 0.01 percent and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.13 percent.
MSCI reclassification concern
The pressure follows a proposal from Morgan Stanley Capital International to reclassify Indonesia from emerging market to standalone market status, a move first reported by Reuters on Friday (16/10). MSCI cited investor concerns over non-transparent ownership structures, ownership concentration and suspected coordinated trading, and has frozen some index-related changes for Indonesian shares. Consultation on the proposal runs until 30 April 2027, with a final decision due by 30 June 2027.
Moody’s and Fitch have separately lowered the outlook on Indonesia’s debt ratings to negative. Indonesia’s composite stock index has fallen more than 30 percent so far in 2026, the worst performer in emerging Asia.
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He said MSCI is not the only rating, noting that S&P and FTSE Russell also rate Indonesia, so one cannot dictate the others. He added that the MSCI announcement would not create a domino effect on Indonesia’s economy.
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