S&P Global Ratings kept Türkiye’s sovereign rating at BB-/B with a stable outlook in an analysis that projects inflation, growth and budget figures for the coming years. The agency’s most recent formal review was in April, when it affirmed the same rating and outlook.
The agency expects average annual inflation of 30.9 percent this year, easing to 21.7 percent in 2027. It forecasts GDP growth of 3 percent this year, after 3.7 percent last year, and a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from its earlier projection because of the Middle East war.
Market stress and the central bank response
A fund investigation that began in September led to forced asset sales, a sharp correction in the stock market and the liquidation of about 18 billion US dollars in funds. Foreign-currency deposits made up 38.7 percent of total bank deposits as of September.
S&P said the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye provided fast liquidity and regulatory measures that limited financial contagion. Most outflows went into lira bank deposits rather than foreign currency, and lower FX demand allowed the bank to partly rebuild its reserves.
Fiscal position and conditions for the outlook
The budget deficit was 2.6 percent of GDP last year and is expected to approach 3 percent this year. Public debt is expected to stay below 30 percent of GDP.
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S&P said the stable outlook assumes that authorities maintain tight monetary and wage-setting policies and do not further deplete foreign-currency reserves. An energy price shock linked to the war in the Middle East could add upward pressure on inflation.
Related: S&P confirms UK credit ratings and keeps stable outlook · HR Ratings cuts Mexico's sovereign rating to BBB, outlook stable
Source: S&P Global | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
