Brazilian Treasury Direto prefixed and inflation-linked bond yields opened lower on Monday (19), following a week of gains. The Prefixado 2037 fell 9 basis points to 12.92% a year, from 13.01% at Friday’s close (16).
The Tesouro IPCA+ 2050 opened at IPCA + 6.66%, down from 6.74% on Friday. The IPCA+ 2032 eased to 6.78% from 6.83%, and the IPCA+ with semi-annual interest 2060 slipped to 6.68% from 6.73%.
Election polls tighten the race
Second-round voting in Brazil’s presidential election is set for Sunday (25). Polls released in recent days show a narrow contest between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey put Flávio Bolsonaro at 49.8% and Lula at 47.6%, a 2.2-point gap that had been 5.4 points a week earlier. A Nexus/BTG poll had the two at 46.5% and 45.9%.
Inflation and rate expectations
Brazil’s IGP-10 rose 1.76% in October, according to FGV, above a market projection of 1.44%. Producer prices within the index rose 2.36%.
The Focus survey left its 2026 inflation projection unchanged at 5.22%, while the 2027 estimate rose to 4.32% from 4.30%. Its year-end Selic forecast for 2026 stayed at 13.25%.
Olívia Flôres de Brás, CEO of Magno Investimentos, said: “The market is projecting lower interest rates while it continues to expect higher inflation.”
Related: Brazil's prefixed bonds recover ground lost since election first round · Hungary's 10-year bond auction draws 909% cover as yields fall
