The World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise 23 percent by the end of 2026, according to its Commodity Markets Outlook report, published on Thursday (29/10). The report, cited by AFP, projects energy prices to climb 32 percent this year before easing in 2027. Food prices are forecast to rise 10 percent in 2026 and a further 7 percent the following year.
Oil supply and demand take a hit
The bank projects global oil supply to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest decline in more than four decades excluding the pandemic. Global oil consumption is expected to drop 2.5 percent, the third-largest decline after the Covid pandemic and the 1980 oil crisis. Under an adverse scenario, the average Brent price would reach 105 US dollars a barrel in 2027.
Energy prices are at their highest level in four years, driven by the war involving Iran. The conflict began in late February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran.
Food risks multiply
Food prices have also surged, the report says, owing to global conflicts and the El Nino phenomenon. The bank warns that a very strong El Nino, intensified attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea, or further energy price spikes could trigger a food crisis. Under the adverse scenario, food commodity prices would sit 12 percent above baseline.
The World Bank has disbursed 8.7 billion US dollars in emergency aid to vulnerable countries since the start of the Iran war. The forecasts are much higher than its April projections.
Priorities for low-income countries
Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose said the commodity market was being hit by several major shocks at once. Priority, he said, must be protecting the poorest groups and supporting low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens.
Related: Indonesia sees 2026 crude average at $95 a barrel, above budget $70
Source: World Bank
