Riots in France could weigh on the French economy, analysts warn, after more than 2,000 businesses were directly affected. Insured damage is estimated at 1.2 billion euros, a first figure from Morningstar equal to about 0.04 percent of French GDP. The French and German 10-year government bond yield spread widened from 137 to 153 basis points between Friday and Monday.
French chambers of commerce put the preliminary damage to businesses at several hundred million euros. ING Bank analysts say insured losses are only the tip of the iceberg. Their reference point is the 2018 yellow vest movement.
What past unrest cost the economy
Parliamentary figures show the 2018 yellow vest movement cost shopping centres about 2 billion euros in lost revenue. Hotels, cafés and restaurants lost 850 million euros. Insurers paid out 217 million euros for property damage.
INSEE estimated that the yellow vest movement shaved 0.1 percentage points off fourth-quarter 2018 growth. The 1995 strikes cut GDP by about 0.2 percentage points.
Budget pressure adds to the picture
Before the riots, analysts forecast French GDP growth of 0.3 percent in 2026 and 0.6 percent in 2027. Its 2027 deficit target assumes 1 percent growth.
Protesters have called further demonstrations for 24 and 31 October. Several unions back a nationwide strike and protest day on 5 November.
Related: French OAT-Bund spread widens to 137.4 basis points · French-German bond spread widens to 142 basis points
