France’s benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed above 5 percent, its highest level in 24 years, widening the spread over Germany’s equivalent bond to roughly 160 basis points. The move came as investors weighed a mixed session for earnings and central bank signals, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.09 percent and the dollar index at 101.5.
Fed seen on hold
Markets are pricing an 86 percent probability that the Federal Reserve holds its policy rate at next week’s meeting, with a 25 basis point hike expected in December. The rate outlook came alongside a mixed batch of corporate results. Meta’s third-quarter net profit rose 264 percent to $9.9 billion, while Tesla’s net profit fell 43 percent to $787 million over the same period.
SAP reported quarterly revenue above 10 billion euros and issued 2026 revenue guidance of 36.3 to 36.8 billion euros. Brent crude rose 1.8 percent to $110.7 a barrel, with oil prices elevated amid Gulf uncertainty. By comparison, Brent spot in Europe closed at $115.22 a barrel on 20 October 2026, near its lowest in 31 days, according to MacroHerald’s own market data; this is a separate benchmark from the December-dated Brent futures price cited above.
UK debt and inflation pressures
In the United Kingdom, annual inflation reached 3.5 percent in September, the highest reading since October 2025. UK public debt is estimated to have exceeded 3 trillion pounds for the first time as of end-September.
Gold traded at $4,090 an ounce. Tensions over Iran also featured in the session’s backdrop. US President Donald Trump said the reason for going to war with Iran was to prevent Tehran from having nuclear weapons, calling it one of the best things he has done. A US Department of State spokesperson, Tommy Pigott, denied reports that Washington was preparing departure orders for personnel across Gulf countries, saying any such measure applied only to Saudi Arabia. The New York Times reported that unnamed officials said US and Israeli militaries had prepared concrete plans for new strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections.
Related: France's 10-year OAT yield hits 5% for first time since 2002 · Colombia 10-year yield tops 13%, eclipses Brazil in EM
Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
