European natural gas prices extended their advance for a fourth consecutive week, with the Netherlands-based TTF benchmark, the reference price for the region, climbing 6.12 percent to 71.08 euros per megawatt-hour as of 15:44 today. That compares with 66.98 euros at last Friday’s close. On Monday this week prices briefly rose above 69 euros, the highest level since January 2023.
Middle East tension weighs
The rise came amid renewed tension in the Middle East. Claims that President Donald Trump was considering ending the war with Iran limited the price increase, but uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has persisted. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly extended the deployment of US troops in the region against Iran.
CNN, citing US officials, reported that US forces have kept oil shipments through the Strait close to pre-conflict levels. The same officials said Iranian forces have shown an ability to rapidly rebuild military capacity, meaning pressure on Tehran should continue, and warned new attacks around the Strait could occur in the coming days. Brent crude closed at $96.02 a barrel on 1 September.
Storage running low
Continued uncertainty over regional shipping has raised concerns about LNG flows from Gulf countries to Europe and slowed the pace of storage refilling. Disruptions around the Strait are also intensifying competition in the global LNG market, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data cited alongside the price move.
South Asian buyers seeking spot cargoes to replace long-term Qatari LNG shipments unable to exit the Persian Gulf are adding to Asian demand. Utility companies in South Korea, India, Taiwan and Bangladesh are reportedly tendering for spot LNG cargoes for October and November delivery, competition that could squeeze supply available to Europe.
EU gas storage currently stands at 65.85 percent full, well below the 78.5 percent recorded on 4 September last year, and below the 92.5 percent seen in 2024 and 93 percent in 2023. Analysts say the combination of possible new LNG supply disruptions, rising Europe-Asia competition for cargoes, and low storage levels raises the risk of sharper gas price increases as winter approaches.
Related: European gas hits 3-year high on Mideast tensions
Source: Gas Infrastructure Europe | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
