The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD trading around 1.1190, down 0.22 percent on the day. The US dollar regained ground after Thursday’s decline, moving in step with US Treasury yields.
Our own market data put the pair at $1.1194 as of 23 October 2026 18:16 GMT, close to its 31-day low.
Central banks and the December outlook
Traders are looking ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank decisions. Commerzbank expects both institutions to pause in October. Economists there argue that a pause would give policymakers more time to judge economic and geopolitical conditions.
The bank sees a different picture in December. Futures markets price in a 25 basis point rate hike by both central banks, which Commerzbank says is likely as inflation stays high. Its forecast for the ECB depends on conditions in the French government bond market not worsening.
Technical picture
The pair trades below its 50-week and 100-week moving averages and sits just above the 200-week average at 1.1105. The dollar index touched a three-week low of 101.45 on Thursday and was at 101.82 at the time of writing.
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Weekly momentum readings are subdued. The relative strength index stands at 34, and the trend strength indicator is around 20, pointing to no strong directional move yet.
Related: Euro slips below 1.1200 as Hammack backs higher rates · Turkish lira quotes: dollar near 49.57, euro near 55.70
Source: Commerzbank | Data: Swissquote
