Palm oil still leads in volume, but soybean oil is becoming the growth driver, No Bull Agriculture CEO Susan Stroud told the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference (IPOC) 2026 in Bali on Friday, 13 November. Stroud described how the United States and Brazil are expanding soybean production and crushing to meet demand from biofuel feedstock users. Her remarks set out the competition facing Indonesian palm oil in the coming years.
Industrial demand reshapes the market
Stroud said production of the four major vegetable oils, palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower, has nearly tripled since 2000. Industrial use now accounts for 28 percent of total demand for those oils, up from 8 percent in 2000. Industrial users account for 66 percent of the growth in palm oil consumption over the past decade, and 47 percent of the growth in soybean oil consumption.
Brazil supplies more than 60 percent of global soybean export supply. Stroud said the two countries together account for more than 80 percent of global industrial soybean oil use. Brazil crushed 65 million tonnes of soybeans, and its crushing rose 19 percent.
Policy shifts favour North American feedstock
Stroud said Brazil’s biodiesel mandate has supported soybean oil demand for years, while US soybean crushing has historically been more oriented toward meal production. US soybean crushing has risen 22 percent since the 2023/2024 season. The US 45Z tax credit began prioritising North American feedstock in 2026, which excludes imported feedstock such as palm oil.
Mahendra Siregar, a geopolitical expert and former Indonesian Deputy Foreign Minister, said diesel supply disruption caused by the war in the Middle East raises the value of palm oil as biodiesel feedstock in Indonesia. He added that greater domestic use of palm oil can reduce supply for exports.
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Source: No Bull Agriculture
