The National Bank of Romania kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5 percent at its last monetary policy meeting of 2026, extending a hold that has now run for 19 consecutive meetings since August 2024.
Inflation path ahead
The BNR board said annual inflation would rise slightly in the final months of 2026. The board’s statement attributed this mainly to the expected effects of recent increases in fuel and energy prices and to developments in the leu exchange rate. Inflation is then expected to follow a gradually declining trajectory, returning within the target range in the first quarter of 2028.
Romania’s annual inflation rate stood at 10.4 percent in June. It was approximately 6.2 percent in August, 6.6 percent in September, and approached 7 percent in October. The board flagged uncertainties and risks around the inflation outlook, economic growth and the continuation of fiscal consolidation.
Highest rate in the region
Romania holds the highest key policy rate among its regional peers. Serbia’s rate stands at 6 percent, Hungary’s at 5.5 percent, the Czech Republic’s at 4 percent and Poland’s at 3.75 percent.
The leu’s exchange rate was cited by the board as one of the pressures likely to push inflation higher in the coming months.
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