Germany’s gas storage industry group INES has warned that the country’s gas storage facility fill level has dropped to 61 percent, which it called a historic low, and said an extremely cold winter could leave Germany facing a gas shortfall in January, February and March 2027.
Extreme scenario modelled
INES said its scenarios point to a maximum monthly shortfall of 6.6 under an extreme cold winter scenario, an amount it said equates to roughly 1.5 days of Germany’s total winter gas consumption. On certain January days under a freezing scenario, the gap between demand and available volume could reach 1.7, which INES said would represent about 40 percent of average daily gas consumption in January 2026.
INES said the scenarios assume an extraordinarily cold winter similar to 2010 and that such extreme conditions are unlikely. Gas supply would remain secure under normal or mild temperatures, it said. The group represents 17 large operators, including SEFE, Uniper and VNG, who together account for more than 90 percent of Germany’s gas storage capacity.
Call for state support
Sebastian Heinermann, INES General Manager, said the scenarios show that storage facilities need to be sufficiently full to ensure supply security, adding that imports via existing pipelines and LNG terminals alone are not enough to meet high consumption peaking on cold winter days. Low storage levels pose a serious risk to supply security, he said, and Germany needs a reliable, long-term framework that makes it economically viable to maintain adequate gas reserves for winter and provides binding guarantees.
INES called for state support, mandatory storage use or a state-controlled gas reserve. Storage operators have a commercial interest in higher utilisation, since they earn revenue from marketing storage capacity.
The Federal Network Agency, known as the Bundesnetzagentur, assessed the risk of a serious gas supply shortfall as low for now, citing additional import options. Natural gas traded at $3.150 as of 13:08 GMT on 10 November 2026, by our market data.
Source: INES | Data: FRED — St. Louis Fed
