A preliminary analysis by consultancy Orza finds that Colombia’s government could initially count on the political alignment of 63 of the 90 members of Congress’s Economic Committees, equivalent to 70 percent, as it seeks passage of its Ley de Rescate Fiscal, or fiscal rescue law. Orza was careful to stress that this does not amount to committed votes for the project.
A tight calendar
The law faces a deadline of 16 December, when ordinary congressional sessions end, though extraordinary sessions remain possible for a few additional days. That leaves roughly six weeks for the measure to clear both chambers.
Of the 90 members across the Third and Fourth Economic Committees, 59 belong to parties that have formally declared support for the government, 6 come from independent parties and 21 from opposition parties. Four representatives of the Citrep have also publicly backed the president. Among the 46 members of the Third Committees alone, 30 belong to government-aligned parties.
Friction over VAT
Proposed measures, including a VAT adjustment, have already drawn opposition within parties nominally allied with the government. Former president Álvaro Uribe, head of the Centro Democrático, said the savings the government proposes are too modest and should be increased substantially by cutting duplicated entities and merging agencies. He added that the VAT measure worries him because of its effect on Colombians with middle and lower incomes.
Business sector appeal
Marcela Meléndez, director of Fedesarrollo, urged companies to support Congress and the executive in adopting the measures. She called them difficult but necessary.
Orza’s report leaves open whether the preliminary alignment will translate into actual votes once the bill reaches the floor.
Source: Orza
